2012 race up to now

Posted on Saturday, June 30, 2012 at 11:00 am

By MARK SHIELDS

Even after disappointing U.S. job numbers, increased American anxiety from the unpredictability of the European economic situation and the solid victory of Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott Walker, President Barack Obama still leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by 47 to 44 percent in recent polls.

When respondents were asked if their presidential choice was more a vote FOR the candidate they were supporting or more a vote more AGAINST his opponent, the results totally differed. Seventy-two percent of Obama supporters said theirs was more a vote FOR Obama, and just 22 percent revealed theirs was basically a vote AGAINST Romney.

Romney supporters are just the opposite. Only 35 percent of the probable Republican nominee’s backers say they are voting more FOR Mitt Romney, while a full 58 percent of GOP voters admit they are motivated primarily by voting AGAINST President Obama. But as Nixon would remind us of those choices, they all count the same.

Because the NBC News-Wall Street Journal survey is written, conducted and analyzed by two of the nation’s most respected pollsters, Democrat Peter D. Hart and Republican Bill McInturff, I know it is straight and free of partisan tilt. Their three most recent surveys — April, May and June — found the race to be close. Obama led Romney 49 percent to 43 percent in April; Obama’s May lead was 47 percent to 43 percent; while in June, the president led his Republican challenger by 47 percent to 44 percent. The race is within the margin of error, which has to be good news for the challenger whose reputation was not enhanced following his primary season struggles against a flawed field of opponents.

But the news may be even better for Romney if you look at the voters who declare themselves undecided in the presidential race. The undecided voters were 8 percent of the total sample in April, 10 percent in May and 9 percent in June — an average undecided of 9 percent. (By way of comparison, the margin of victory in every U.S. presidential election since 1984 has been less than 9 percent.)

Thanks to Robert Nelson of Peter D. Hart’s office, I was able to look at who all these undecided voters were in the NBC News-Wall Street Journal polls for April, May and June. Their portrait provides cold comfort to Obama headquarters.

Asked to rate their own feelings toward the president as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative or very negative, the total results were 48 percent positive and 38 percent negative for Barack Obama. But the undecideds’ positive feelings toward the president were just 28 percent, and their negative feelings were 40 percent.

Romney’s numbers were nothing to write home about. But the point is that the undecided voters are, as of now, not really undecided about Barack Obama. They are, with just over four months until Election Day, down on the incumbent, which is why getting to 50 percent plus in the national surveys is key to the president’s re-election.

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